WSL preview: A tactical horror in five acts

What if the shape is wrong from the start?

As a horror film connoisseur, I've reached the point in my viewing journey where nothing truly scares me anymore. I need more than jump scares or scary tales about ghouls and possession; psychological horror is becoming the primary way to scratch that itch. Midsommar, Black Swan, Hereditary, Get Out, Us, and now…Weapons.

I watched the Zach Cregger screening with rapt attention. 12 kids go missing - all from the same classroom - and we aren’t told much about the source of the terror (shades of Michael B Jordan’s Sinners).

So, what does this have to do with the WSL? Well, watch enough of the genre, and you start to recognise patterns not just in plot, but in behaviour. A character makes the same doomed decision because they trust the wrong structure - just like a team clinging to a failing manager. You scream “don’t go there” when they try to investigate a strange noise, just as you might do when a centre-back steps out of shape at the wrong moment.

Now I could’ve taken the traditional route vis-à-vis the preview, but that’s not what this newsletter’s about. Psychological horrors are a real mind-fuck, and something tells me this season of the WSL might be too. Which teams appear fine until the lights go out? And which tactical systems are layered with different personas?

Buckle up and don’t look away…

Fragmented narratives

Dual perspectives are important because they often reveal insights that the surface plot may otherwise conceal. Case in point, last season, Chelsea stormed to a sixth consecutive league title, invincible, infallible, unbeatable. In Europe? Unspooling. Having sat in the front row at Stamford Bridge for that embarrassing Champions League semi-final capitulation to Barcelona, there’s clearly more to it than meets the eye.

Against high-level coordinated presses - as seen across the top five leagues - the Blues’ central midfield was too easy to bypass. Sonia Bompastor’s structured possession relied on progression, but there was no plan B when opponents disrupted the system.

Will things be any different next season? Well, did Nell Crane think that leaving Hill House behind would free her from her mental cage? Given Barca’s terse financial situation, it could be the case on this occasion.

Aston Villa also deserve a mention here. Natalia Arroyo and Robert de Pauw are two sides of the same coin. From flirting to relegation to a remarkable late run, and even handing Arsenal a stunning 5-2 defeat, the Brummies are proving there’s light at the end of the tunnel.

Let’s hope it’s not an oncoming train. The Villans might’ve scored 16 goals in their final five games, but they also conceded 44 - the most of any team in the top half of the standings in the entire campaign. Carla Ward’s problematic 4-3-3 shape carried over into last season’s campaign, where midfielders pressed aggressively without adequately covering the defence. There might be flashes of promise, but expect more of a slow burner.

Something feels off

My spidey senses are tingling about Manchester United this season. Marc Skinner, somehow the longest-serving manager in the league, the hot and cold performances from last season, rumours of internal turmoil…it just doesn’t sit right.

(On a side-note: how do you look at this lady and say, “yep, nothing weird there, totally fiiiiine”?)

Something that caught my eye last year was the team’s fragility and overdependence on a handful of individuals rather than being built on a consistent, collective system. Finishing third might’ve earned them the right to brush away some of the scrutiny, but simply getting by can’t be the new precedent.

Players like Elisabeth Terland and Grace Clinton bailed out the Red Devils on more than one occasion. Elsewhere, however, the team looked stale. Here’s a telling statistical comparison: Skinner’s troops ranked in the same sphere as lower-table teams like Crystal Palace and Everton for long passes per 90, while also sitting in the top three for assists.

Moments of inventiveness mixed with passing breakdowns, like flickers of lightning in an otherwise blue sky, shouldn’t sate the fans. We should be ringing more alarm bells about the reliance on an overly defensive midfield pivot, and whether the football is delivering on the entertainment dial.

Sure, they did only concede 16 goals last season, but seven of those came in the final three games (1-0 defeat to Chelse, 2-2 draw with Man City, and 4-3 loss to Arsenal).

Unfortunately, I don’t necessarily believe it’ll be any different next season. Like their men’s team, there’s a prevailing acceptance of mediocrity and tactical dissonance. I hope to be proved wrong, but I can't shake the crawling feeling of doubt.

The same can be said for the newly-promoted London City Lionesses. This isn’t necessarily the feel-good story that Michele Kang is trying to portray. Many have labelled her as “women’s football’s first tycoon”. But if she isn’t just acquiring all the top talent for business purposes, what can we expect tactically?

Jocelyn Prêcheur has already given us a glimpse of how it might pan out during her time with Paris-Saint Germain. Structured, precision passing and territorial control were the name of the game. Early dominant pressing was also consistent with this style.

If I have one concern, it’s the perfectionism of it all. The Lionesses appear to be the perfect package, so careful with their methodicalness…what happens when the mirror shatters? WSL teams are pressing more sharply - will Prêcheur’s revolutionists adapt or fail?

This is a club with all the right personnel: an elite playmaker in Kosovare Asllani - who was lethal for Sweden in this summer’s Euros - a clinical striker in Isobel Goodwin, and a visionary coach. Keep an eye out for any cracks: if something seems wrong, it probably is. I’m trusting Jordan Peele on this one.

Doomed from the start?

Recurring flaws, tactical loops, or deeper structural issues that remained unsolved were prevalent in last season’s league campaign. Some of these issues were more obvious than others, like a child flying under the radar of CPS when his parents are being (*redacted spoiler*). There are a few candidates from last season who fit the category.

Enter, stage right, Manchester City. Andrée Jeglertz has the heady task of inheriting Gareth Taylor’s tired squad and bringing it back to life. Last season, the Cityzen’s recorded their worst points-per-game rate in a WSL season (2.0 – 43 from 22) since their first campaign in the competition back in 2014 (1.4).

After carefully watching the 53-year-old lead Denmark to another Euros, it became clear that a fiery 3-4-3 formation, encouraging quick passes and movement in close proximity, was the preferred approach. The Citizens already have the players to implement such a physically demanding style of football. I expect them to dust off the cobwebs and get on their bike without needing much time to gel with the new coach.

With one of the smallest budgets in the league and significant squad turnover, Rehane Skinner’s arrival has brought about some stability, but West Ham aren’t out of the woods yet. They’ll need Viviane Asseyi and Shekiera Martinez to keep netting (Martinez almost doubled her xG last season with 1.01 goals per 90 minutes) and for the team to double down with that 3-5-2 that keeps making the trip to the Chigwell Construction Stadium such a dread-inducing ride. I smell a title-competing team being held to a horribly tetchy draw…

Leicester City and Everton bring up the rear. The former are probably more of a left-field addition because I genuinely believed that they’d do so much better than 10th under Amandine Miquel. But while googling how to spell her name, I came across the news that she’s been sacked 11 days before the new campaign kicks off. Since I’m writing this preview now, I can’t really say what my predictions are, or whether the Foxes are doomed for more misery.

I do think Miquel should’ve been given more time to enforce her philosophy of space creation rather than mindless possession. At Reims, the 41-year-old fostered disciplined, compact units that could execute purposeful transitions in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1. If the new director of football, Lee Billiard, is expecting some meteoric turnaround by giving her the sack, he might be in for a rude awakening.

The same could be said for Everton fans. Mid-table purgatory, purposeless possession, unsettled ownership, and an increasingly burdened manager in Brian Sørensen have not made for easy viewing. Simultaneously, the football has not matched the territory the Toffees find themselves in.

Last season, they finished eighth with an aggressive, defensive line that left large gaps between lines. Players constantly struggled to maintain the shape, both in and out of possession, which led to opposing teams breaking quickly and directly. (Spoiler alert: the below sequence ends in a goal).

Hidden influencers

Every good horror movie has at least one person who serves as the voice of quiet reason. Dewayne Perkins, who played himself in ‘The Blackening’, epitomised it best:

Now, there is a footballing equivalent of the kind of player who might have to be just as blunt in distressing situations. For Brighton, that player is Kiko Seike. Under manager Dario Vidošić, the midfielder has found a new lease of life.

I previously did a deep dive on what life under Vidošić might look like, and the Yugoslavian tactician has definitely lived up to the hype. His positionally fluid 3-4-3 system has enabled full-backs and midfielders to influence play from different angles.

But back to Seike. The Japanese international was the rhythm disruptor that frustrated and thwarted opposing teams by drawing defenders out of shape. This allowed the likes of Fran Kirby and Michelle Agyemang to exploit the spaces left behind. Last season, the 29-year-old averaged 0.81 tackles in the attacking third and sat in the 85th percentile for fouls that led to a goal. Her tenacity is a welcome skill for a team that places so much emphasis on sustained open-play passing sequences, even surpassing Man City and Arsenal in the same metric.

If there’s any reason to be slightly doubtful, it’s that they conceded the second-most number of goals in the top half of the table - 41. Much of that came from in-game lapses in tracking. It’s important to note that being dominant on the ball doesn’t equate to being well-drilled on what to do after you lose it. Players can be caught out of position, midfielders ahead of the ball not covering their back line, resulting in counters.

Poor rest defence aside, Brighton finished fifth last season - their highest league positioning in years. On 28 points, however, there’s a growing chasm between them and the top four. Fourth-placed Man City finished on 43 points - 15 ahead! Can they bridge the gap? Vidošić would need Man City or United to have a real stinker of a season. Not that it’s entirely out of the question, one team in managerial transition and United being, well, United.

Maybe the Seagulls inch closer, but this particular case seems pretty open and shut. Tottenham, on the other hand, are very much not. The men’s and women’s teams went through the wringer last season, but there were a few players who really put in a shift despite the dark times. Eveliina Summanen was one of the few.

Losing key ball progressors Grace Clinton and Celine Bizet left a void, but the 27-year-old plugged the gap well and handled the pressure of opposing presses. Her positioning makes for tough sparring. Last season, she ranked in the 91st percentile for interceptions, averaging 6.75 ball recoveries per 90, and outperforming her Expected Assists (0.08 versus 0.19).

Underestimating her is pointless. As Bill Skarsgård put it so eloquently in Cregger’s ‘Barbarian’:

Expect her to play a significant role under new manager Martin Ho. In my analysis of Spurs’ new signing Tōko Koga, I said this about the 35-year-old: “His vision for Spurs involves dynamic, attacking-based football, likely in a formation similar to the one he used with his former club. Fortunately, the Lillywhites already operate in a 4-2-3-1 (sometimes a 4-3-3 hybrid), which might help his tactics stick a little faster during the teething phase”.

If we’re taking his former results as evidence then the North Londoners will definitely do better than last season’s 11th-placed finish: Ho’s Brann side kept more clean sheets than any other team in the Norwegian Toppserien (11) – in comparison Spurs’ last 11 league clean sheets have come across their last 75 WSL matches.

Breaking the cycle

“You can’t get rid of the Babadook.”

Amelia Vanek probably isn’t the ideal example for this, but at least she finally faced her demons head on. Liverpool are just starting to do that too. In their case, the ‘big bad monster’ is the board that have allowed a two-time title-winning team to fall into utter disrepair. Gareth Taylor’s arrival could change all that.

The Matt Beard years weren’t all bad. His style of football turned the Reds into a structured, passing machine. In came ball-playing defenders, which increased the technical elements of play in wide areas. Set-pieces also became a genuine weapon, partly due to Sophie Haug’s presence and the crossing abilities of Marie-Therese Höbinger. Last season, the 24-year-old set a record for the most chances created by any player on the team across a single WSL campaign. Taylor will need her in a similar form, especially in the absence of Olivia Smith.

Defence remains a genuine concern. Last season, the Reds dropped more points from winning positions than any other side in the WSL (15). The new system will require playing out from the back under pressure and adapting to higher-tempo roles - all of which have proven to be a challenge in the pre-season. A seventh-placed positioning with significant improvements in tactical cohesion and overall performance wouldn’t be a bad outcome.

Can Arsenal say the same for themselves? There is something intriguing about a side that won the Champions League but have failed to match Chelsea’s chokehold over the league.

Last season, the Gunners repeatedly demonstrated an inability to break down frustrating low and mid-blocks. Losses to teams like Liverpool and Villa highlighted a recurring issue: sit deep and soak up the pressure for long enough, and you'll get your chance to strike on the counter.

Smith’s arrival could help lift the curse. Clearly, scoring goals isn't the problem. Renée Slegers’ troops were the leading scorers last season with 62 goals, scoring four or more goals in 10 different league games last term. But netting frequently isn't an indication that things are peachy keen. The statistic can be inflated by dominant wins over weaker teams rather than consistency across the board. No wonder they forked out a million on Smith - they need a player who can penetrate the lines in central areas, and she is all that and more.

Although she didn’t have an outstanding goalscoring season, her out-of-possession contributions significantly improved. The Canadian international averaged 1.78 tackles per 90, 0.80 interceptions, and sat in the 98th percentile for fouls drawn that lead to shot attempts.

These statistics align with the brilliant scout report that my friend Marc Lambert prepared. In his analysis, he noted a shift in the 21-year-old's scoring contributions when she moved from Sporting CP to Liverpool. This suggested she was adjusting to the league’s intensity, and more specifically, Beard’s defensive system.

When teams press deeply, they move vertically as a unit; it’s a physically demanding task. The key is to focus on drawing players out of position to create or manipulate space elsewhere. Arsenal have several finishers, including Stina Blackstenius, Alessia Russo, Beth Mead, and Caitlin Foord, who rotate in the lineup. But where is that Seike-esq player who can pull the threads? Mariona Caldentey and Kim Little have adopted those roles, but the former is more favourably positioned in wider areas, while the latter was sidelined with a hamstring injury for much of the season.

The other notable Merseyside addition is Taylor Hinds. Slegers has acquired a versatile left-back or wing-back to help add depth and flexibility to her team's defensive positions. The departures of Amanda IIestedt and Laura Wienroither prove that cavalry is very much in need.

Conceding only 17 goals in their first 20 games before suffering 5-2 and 4-2 defeats in their last five matches during a demanding European campaign suggests that the team needs more rotational players to help cover. Hinds could be that player, aiding the North Londoners in sustaining pressure during multiple competitions. She can also support attacks from defensive positions, which could help address the issues with low and mid-block defences.